Posted by Dave as Mel Kiper's Not Always Right, NFL at 9:57 AM EDT on April 24th, 2007

With the draft coming up, I’m going to post a past draft each day, starting today with 2002. It’ll be broken down into three parts: Overhyped, Underhyped, Steal, and Bust.
To fully understand this, you need to know that overhyped doesn’t necessarily bust; a player could be overhyped — a linebacker billed as the next LT, for example — but might still have a pretty solid career (someone who’s overhyped but completely sucks is labeled a bust). Underhyped is the opposite — a player people figured would be pretty good, but turned out great. “Bust” and “Steal” should be pretty self-explanatory.
For yesterday’s 2002 breakdown, click here.
On we go.
-Overhyped
- Dewayne Robertson, 1st Round (pick 4): I put him as overhyped, but I do so with an asterisk. He was supposed to come in and dominate, but his rookie year was a bust; since then, though, he’s steadily gotten better. But he’s not a top five or ten defensive tackle in the league, which is why he’s here.
- Terence Newman, 1st Round (pick 5): He’s a solid tackler, but unfortunately isn’t a safety. In his four years in the league, he’s only managed 12 picks, and at times has looked very vulnerable to the deep ball.
- Byron Leftwich, 1st Round (pick 7): I’ll admit that I was on this bandwagon. I remember watching him at Marshall while his offensive lineman were carrying him to the line of scrimmage because he was too injured to walk (he deserved the Heisman for that, and maybe an Oscar as well). He’s got 51 touchdowns with 36 interceptions in his career, which isn’t shabby, but was most recently benched in favor of David Garrard.
- Marcus Trufant, 1st Round (pick 11): This kid was a stud at Washington State, and while he’s had his moments in Seattle, he hasn’t lived into the billing of being a number one corner. He’s got 9 picks in his career, and only had one last year.
- Bryant Johnson, 1st Round (pick 17): I can’t call him a bust, because he has put up some numbers. But those numbers are small and, playing next to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, aren’t looking to get much bigger. He had 740 yards and 4 touchdowns last year, which makes him a respectable number 3 receiver.
-Underhyped
- Andre Johnson, 1st Round (pick 3): Hard to be underhyped as the third pick. Also hard to put up nearly 4,000 yards in four years with David Carr throwing you the ball. Not many touchdowns, sure (only 17), but put him with any other offense and he’d be a monster (except you, Cleveland).
- Troy Polamalu, 1st Round (pick 16): Save Ed Reed, he’s probably the best safety in the league. He can cover, hit, tackle, and when he gets a pick he’s always explosive. And his hair’s fun to watch.
- Rex Grossman, 1st Round (pick 22): I’ll catch some scrutiny, but whatever. He went to a Super Bowl. Yeah, he’s not very good, but, ya know. . . he went to a Super Bowl. That’s the only stat I can use, because I’m not pulling out his injuries or touchdown-to-interception ratio.
- Willis McGahee, 1st Round (pick 23): He was one of my favorite players to watch in college, up until his knee turned backwards. He shook it off, though; look for him to have an incredible year in Baltimore.
- Larry Johnson, 1st Round (pick 27): If you’ve played fantasy football, you already know. . .
-Steals
- Rashean Mathis, 2nd Round (pick 39): Champ Baiiley, Asante Samuel. . . Rashean Mathis? I dunno. My mind’s kinda blanked right now, but I can’t think of three other guys I’d rather have playing corner. He was third in the league with 8 interceptions last year, and now has 20 through his career.
- Anquan Boldin, 2nd Round (pick 54): Everyone talked about how slow his 40 was. He set a rookie record for catches in 2003, and has since been named to the Pro Bowl. He was seventh in the league last year with 1,203 yards, and though he only grabbed four touchdowns, most of that blame can be put on Kurt Warner’s shoulders.
- Osi Umenyiora, 2nd Round (pick 56): He was injured most of last year, but still managed six sacks on the season. When both are healthy, he and Michael Strahan might be the best pass rushing duo in the league.
- Lance Briggs, 3rd Round (pick 68): He’s been complaining about money and franchise tags, but he’s a two-time Pro Bowler now. Without being in Urlacher’s shadow, he might have an even better season next year (that is, if he’s playing).
- Jason Witten, 3rd Round (pick 69): He’s one of the best tight ends in the game. He has over 2,800 yards in four season with 14 touchdowns. He can block, he can catch, and he can run.
- Asante Samuel, 4th Round (pick 120): Read the comments posted about Rashean Mathis. If it wasn’t for a guy whose last name is Bailey, he’d be the best cover corner in the league. Now I just have to figure out how New England — a team, quarterback and coach I despise — consistently drafts guys so high that are so good.
- Justin Griffith, 4th Round (pick 121): A fullback that doesn’t get much credit. But he’s been to two Pro Bowls, and he’s been a big reason that Atlanta has been the best rushing team in the league the last few years.
- Robert Mathis, 5th Round (pick 138): He’s not much for run support, but as third-down specialists go, he’s a nasty pair with Dwight Freeney.
-Busts
- Charles Rogers, 1st Round (pick 2): This is where the decline of Matt Millen began. Well, maybe not “began,” per se, but at least where the people of Detroit started to show up to ball games with signs reading “Fire Matt Millen.” Charles Rogers was thought to be one of the surest things out there: 4.4 speed, tall, great jumps. His best year was his rookie year, where he had 243 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s currently looking for work.
- Johnathon Sullivan, 1st Round (pick 6): In 36 games, he managed 77 tackles and 1.5 sacks. As a Georgia Tech fan, it never bothers me to see former UGA players struggle.
- Jimmy Kennedy, 1st Round (pick 12): Brought in to help the Rams defense at the time, he’s had 90 tackles and 4 sacks in his career.
- Kyle Boller, 1st Round (pick 19): I remember everyone saying he could throw a ball fifty yards from his knees. That’s great and all, but I guess the scouts shoulda had him try and actually hit a target ten yards deep from those same knees.
- Michael Haynes, 1st Round (pick 14): He’s got 5.5 sacks. Total. Great at Penn State, not so great in the League.
- Calvin Pace, 1st Round (pick 18): One of the few Wake Forest players taken in the first round. Maybe the last, if his statistics are any indication of future performance.
I’ll have 2004’s up tomorrow. Feel free to let me know of anyone I’ve missed (reading through all those rounds, my eyes tend to go blurry).