Posted by Dave as Mel Kiper's Not Always Right, NFL at 9:01 AM EDT on April 25th, 2007

With the draft coming up, I’m going to post a past draft each day, starting today with 2002. It’ll be broken down into three parts: Overhyped, Underhyped, Steal, and Bust.
To fully understand this, you need to know that overhyped doesn’t necessarily bust; a player could be overhyped — a linebacker billed as the next LT, for example — but might still have a pretty solid career (someone who’s overhyped but completely sucks is labeled a bust). Underhyped is the opposite — a player people figured would be pretty good, but turned out great. “Bust” and “Steal” should be pretty self-explanatory.
For the 2002 and 2003 breakdown, click here.
On we go.
-Overhyped
- Eli Manning, 1st Round (pick 1): The Chargers probably aren’t too upset daddy’s boy didn’t want to play in San Diego. Phillip Rivers has made a slow but smooth transition, while Eli’s struggling mightily to adjust in New York. Good call on where he should play, Archie.
- Sean Taylor, 1st Round (pick 6): He made the Pro Bowl last year, but struggled his first two years. He was called the next Ronnie Lott coming out of Miami, but has had problems with the law, as well as issues with Joe Gibbs. He’s fun to watch, though; how many other crazies do you know that are going to kill the punter during the Pro Bowl game?
- Reggie Williams, 1st Round (pick 9): His best season came last year when he had 616 yards and 4 touchdowns. In his three years in the league, he has only two catches of more than 40 yards.
- Michael Clayton, 1st Round (pick 15): He had nearly 1,193 yards and 7 touchdowns his first year in the league. Since then: 728 yards and one touchdown. This, I’m guessing, is why Gruden’s desperately hoping Calvin falls in their lap at the four spot this year.
- Michael Jenkins, 1st Round (pick 29): He’s not overhyped, because he was never really hyped, but I can’t label him a bust, and I need to bash him somehow. I’m a Falcons fan, and am sick and tired of watching him drop balls. If you haven’t seen Jenkins play, it’s probably because he’s most recently been on the bench.
- Ahmad Carroll, 1st Round (pick 25): Drafted by Green Bay, he sucked and they got rid of him. He’s got three career interceptions, one of which came last year with the Jags. All in all, he hasn’t been what he was originally thought to be.
-Underhyped
- Steven Jackson, 1st Round (pick 24): Big Steven Jackson fan. Have you played with this guy on Madden? He’s got good speed, great vision, and can run over linebackers. Getting him at number 24 is a steal.
- Vince Wilfork, 1st Round (pick 21): I remember watching this draft and wondering when some team was going to take the monster from Miami. Unfortunately, he was taken by those dirty, winning, annoying Patriots, and has been a tremendous success ever since.
- Jonathan Vilma, 1st Round (pick 12): Speaking of monsters from Miami: Vilma’s been one of the best linebackers in the league since he got drafted. He was voted defensive rookie of the year in 2004, and has since notched 169 and 113 tackle seasons (he’s also got five career picks).
- Lee Evans, 1st Round (pick 13): JP Losman’s glad they grabbed this guy. His worst season was 743 yards and 7 touchdowns; his best was last year, where he had 1,292 yards and 8 touchdowns, becoming one of the best receivers in the league.
- Tommie Harris, 1st Round (pick 14): Watch last year’s Bears defense with Tommie Harris, then watch that same defense without him. It’s a big, big difference.
- Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round (pick 11): He won his first fifteen games in the league in year one. He won a Super Bowl in year two. He ran into a car while on his motorcycle in year three –without a helmet, mind you — but still. He’s won a Super Bowl within three years, so he’s gotta be considered underhyped.
-Steals
- Julius Jones, 2nd Round (pick 43): He’s gotta share the ball with Marion Barber, so his numbers are down a little. But he’s a very good back, and one that’s certainly worth your money in the second round.
- Bob Sanders, 2nd Round (pick 44): Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Bob Sanders. That’s the order for the three best safeties in the league.
- Matt Schaub, 3rd Round (pick 90): He’s done next to nothing. But while doing nothing, the starting quarterback kinda sucked. The end result: A trade, some draft picks, and a big contract for a guy who’s done very little. The Falcons drafted a guy in the third round; in return, they moved up in this draft and got a second round pick for next year. Not bad for a backup.
- Shaun Phillips, 4th Round (pick 98): He had 11.5 sacks last year, which make up for any bad stats the previous two years.
- Nathan Vasher, 4th Round (pick 110): He’d look more like a steal if it wasn’t for that game two years ago against the Panthers in the playoffs.
-Busts
- Robert Gallery, 1st Round (pick 2): He was supposed to redefine the offensive lineman. Since he entered the league, he’s been knocked over by ends and tackles — depending whether Oakland put him at guard or tackle — and just hasn’t been the pro anyone thought he would be. He ran an almost identical 40 that Joe Thomas just ran, which, if you’re one of these reliant combine people who’s about to draft Joe Thomas, has to make you wonder.
- Marcus Tubbs, 1st Round (pick 23): 60 tackles and 6 sacks in three years. There’s worse, but this class doesn’t have too many busts, so I’ll pick on ‘em when I can.
- Chris Perry, 1st Round (pick 26): He plays behind Rudi Johnson, but 337 yards in three years is still pretty sad. If only he was still playing Notre Dame’s defense. . .
I’ll have 2005’s draft up tomorrow. Sorry for the lack of busts in this one; I was upset, too. Anyway, check back tomorrow.