Posted by Dave as Mel Kiper's Not Always Right, NFL at 12:27 PM EDT on April 26th, 2007

With the draft coming up, I’m going to post a past draft each day, starting with 2002. It’ll be broken down into three parts: Overhyped, Underhyped, Steal, and Bust.
To fully understand this, you need to know that overhyped doesn’t necessarily bust; a player could be overhyped — a linebacker billed as the next LT, for example — but might still have a pretty solid career (someone who’s overhyped but completely sucks is labeled a bust). Underhyped is the opposite — a player people figured would be pretty good, but turned out great. “Bust” and “Steal” should be pretty self-explanatory.
For the 2002-2004 draft breakdowns, click here.
On we go.
-Overhyped
Alex Smith, 1st Round (pick 1): He’s only been in the league two years, but so have every other player that’ll be covered here. That said, his stats — though not terrible — haven’t been great. He showed a vast improvement last year with 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, but vast improvement isn’t a hard thing to show when that ratio was 1:11 the year before.
Braylon Edwards, 1st Round (pick 3): Maybe. A little? Hard to say he’s overhyped when Charlie Frye is throwing him the ball, but his stats haven’t been that of a number one, big time receiver.
Cedric Benson, 1st Round (pick 4): Six touchdowns in two years, but he averages 4.1 yards per carry over his career. He hasn’t gotten the carries he’s wanted, but this year the running load’s on his shoulders.
Antrel Rolle, 1st Round (pick 8): Injured just about his entire rookie campaign, Antrel Rolle hasn’t proven to be much of a shutdown corner. He’s got two picks in two years, and I still think he should be a safety.
Erasmus James, 1st Round (pick 18): Coming out of Wisconsin, he was supposed to be one of the next great pass rushers. Plagued by injury, he’s got 5 sacks in two years.
Marcus Spears, 1st Round (pick 20): The Cowboys were thought to have had one of the best drafts by getting Spears and Ware. While Ware’s a beast, Spears has notched only 2.5 sacks in his first two years in the league.
Aaron Rodgers, 1st Round (pick 24): I can’t officially put him as a bust; he’s been in limbo for the last two years, waiting for Brett Favre to finally retire. Poor Aaron waited in the draft lobby for 23 picks — after there was talk of him going number one overall — for this: Playing behind Brett Favre, wondering when the old man who’s throwing picks like it’s going out of style is finally going to give it up.
-Underhyped
Cadillac Williams, 1st Round (pick 5): He was picked over by Ronnie Brown but managed 1,100 yards his first year, earning him the rookie of the year award. He didn’t have stellar stats last year, but I can give you three reasons why: Chris Simms, Bruce Gradkowski, Tim Rattay. G
DeMarcus Ware, 1st Round (pick 11): He can play linebacker or end, and is a freak at both. He’s got 19.5 sacks in his first two years, and has become the anchor of the Dallas defense.
Shawne Merriman, 1st Round (pick 12): Yeah, there’s some steroids involved. But that hasn’t stopped Barry from breaking records and getting MVP’s. He’s one of the best players in the league, and maybe one of the craziest (you’re still in first, Sean Taylor).
Fabian Washington, 1st Round (pick 23): He struggled his rookie year. But he had 4 picks last year for a Raiders defense that, surprisingly, was pretty good.
Heath Miller, 1st Round (pick 30): The man’s got 11 touchdowns in two years and is a tight end. And he was a pretty big part in getting to, and winning, the Super Bowl.
-Steals
Pacman Jones, 1st Round (pick 6): A section usually reserved for guys drafted after the first round, I can’t omit Pacman as a steal. He gave the city of Nashville and many others across this great nation some of the best off-field stories they’ve ever heard.
Lofa Tatupa, 2nd Round (pick 44): 226 tackles, 4 picks and 5.5 sacks in his first two years. Think he qualifies.
Darrent Williams, 2nd Round (pick 56): What happened to him was a tragedy. But he was a solid cornerback who might have been a number one guy had he not played with Champ Bailey.
Justin Miller, 2nd Round (pick 57): His stats don’t read that well (he doesn’t have a pick), but he’s become a solid cornerback who’s rarely beat in coverage.
Frank Gore, 3rd Round (pick 65): He’s got a titanium leg now, but last year’s stats alone make him a steal: He was five yards shy of 1,700 while averaging nearly 5.5 yards per carry with 8 touchdowns.
Maurice Clarett, 3rd Round (pick 101): Comedic value, people.
Marion Barber, 4th Round (pick 109): Julius Jones is listed as the starter, but more times than not last year Marion Barber was getting the carries. He only had 654 yards, but was a fantasy steal with 14 touchdowns.
Brandon Jacobs, 4th Round (pick 110): We’ll see how he pans out as an every day back (my guess is not that good). But getting 16 touchdowns from the 110th pick isn’t so shabby.
-Busts
Troy Williamson, 1st Round (pick 7): A friend of mine was good friends with Kenny Irons (Auburn RB), who played with Troy at South Carolina. I’ve met the guy, and he’s really nice, which makes this extra hard: He’s really not good. After running the blazing 4.2 at the combine, he’s done little to establish himself as a top receiver in the league; he has 827 yards and 2 touchdowns in two years.
Mike Williams, 1st Round (pick 10): Took a year off to get fat, and he’s never been back to his USC form. I was critical when the Lions made this pick, but at the same time in agreement; sure, Charles Rogers was a bust, but Mike Williams — this guy! — was as sure-handed and good of a receiver as there was. Last year Fat Mike had 8 receptions for 99 yards and 1 touchdown. It’s almost as if he and Charles are competiting for that “bigger bust” status right now.
Again, not many busts. It’s hard after two years to really establish if a guy’s a bust. Oh, and sorry for these being posted so late today. I’ve had terrible troubles with my internet today, and am lucky to be getting these up at all. I’ll have last year’s draft up tomorrow.
Zach Said,
April 27, 2007 @ 10:40 am
Ahh, who could forget a draft that gave us PacMan and Maurice. Priceless. Good job.
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