For those of you that don’t remember, or may be new to the site, last year I made my picks on the NFL spreads each week. Now while I didn’t finish with any kind of unblemished record, I was 20 games over .500, which, betting against Vegas, really isn’t that bad.

I’ll be doing the same thing this year. Each week, I’ll go through each game and make my picks. Week 1 marks the scariest week of the season: In a league like the NFL, there’s always surprise teams and teams that bust, and going in on Week 1 you never really know which team will be which. With that said, here’s my picks. Anything you win, just cut 10 percent of that and make it payable to Dave @ Busted Play. Enjoy.

Washington Redskins (+4) @ New York Giants: For almost every Super Bowl I can remember, one of the teams representing always falls flat on their faces the next year. My guess is that won’t be the Pats. With no Strahan and no Umenyiora, I’m guessing that role falls on the Giants. The four is nice, but take Washington straight up.

Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) @ Baltimore Ravens: The Ravens D is good. And old. And pretty much a shadow of that D from 2000. They’ll be rolling with Joe Flacco, which is an upgrade from Troy Smith but a downgrade from just about anyone else. It’ll be fun listening to the announcer say, “Catch complete to number 85, Chad Ocho Cinco.” Not sure that’ll ever get old. Bengals by a field goal.

New York Jets (-3) @ Miami Dolphins: This will be the third road team in a row I’ll be picking. Such moves spell instant doom in the gambling world. And though Chad Pennington may have some inside information that can help the Dolphins, at the end of the day his best receiver is still Ted Ginn and his best running back is still Ricky Williams. My point exactly. Jets cover.

Houston Texans (+6.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers: There’s questions for Pittsburgh on the offensive line, their defense fell apart at the end of last season, and Texas, believe it or not, looks like that team that may surprise some people this year. Big Ben gets the W, but take Texas and the points.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans (+3): It’s a playoff team that’s getting three points at home. In their last four meetings, the teams are 2-2. In a coin flip, take the points, Titans cover.

Detroit Lions (-3) @ Atlanta Falcons: If there’s a game the Falcons have a chance with, it’s this one. But Calvin Johnson is apparently other-worldly right now, and with no Mike Martz — the most overrated so called “offesive guru” in the league — I think the Lions get better. Calvin has a break out party. Roy Williams grabs his hundred. Falcons keep it close, but take the Lions by a touchdown.

Seattle Seahawks (+1) @ Buffalo Bills: I just don’t believe in Trent Edwards. Seattle has good defense, a veteran offense, and a good coaching staff. You can’t really say any of those things about Buffalo.

St. Louis Rams (+8) @ Philadelphia Eagles: I think the Rams will be better than last year. A healthy Bulger, Holt and Jackson can’t hurt this team’s chances. Add the fact that they got a pass rusher in Chris Long, and my guess is they’ll have at least 8 wins in a weak NFC West. They won’t win Week 1, but they’ll cover.

Dallas Cowboys @ Cleveland Browns (+5.5): The Browns have done nothing but add talent to a 10 win team last year, yet everyone’s looking at them and saying, “Eh, this team may be lucky to win eight.” Me thinks people are putting a bit much into the preseason. Me thinks Tony Romo still doesn’t have his mind on football. Me thinks this Browns team is going to be an 11 win team. The points are nice. But the Browns win it straight up.

Carolina Panthers @ San Diego Chargers (-9): There’s a rule of thumb in the NFL that you don’t bet on an NFL team who’s favored by more than six and coached by Norv Turner. That thumb never saw this Panthers team without Steve Smith. It’s high, it’s Norv, but it’s a lock. Chargers cover.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49′ers (+2.5): I’ll take the points at home. But in truth, I wouldn’t touch this game with a ten foot pole and your money.

Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts (-9.5): Really? Week 1, Kyle Orton, a pass rushing D, Peyton Manning, and only 9.5 points? I’m hearing the Colts offensive line is injured. I’m also hearing they’re playing the Bears, so it shouldn’t much matter. Colts roll, win by three touchdowns.

Minnesota Vikings (+3) @ Green Bay Packers: The Vikings have the best offensive and defensive lines in football. The Packers have neither, and Aaron Rodgers is your new starter. I’m not too inspired by Tavaris Jackson, either, but AP should be able to carry the load. Take the three, Vikes cover.

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders (+3): This marks the beginning of the end for ol’ Mike Shannahan. The team fell apart last year, and I don’t see a whole lot different this year. The three points is Christmas in September. Raiders roll, “upset” the Broncos.

-Lock of the Week

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (-3.5): Remember the first home game the Saints had after Katrina? The refs called holding, pass interference, offsides, false start, illegal shift, personal foul, late hit, you name it. . . they called it all against the Falcons. Gustav wasn’t Katrina, but this Bucs team isn’t that Falcons team. The playoffs were nice last year, Gruden, but don’t look to be there this January. Saints win, roll the Bucs by two TD’s in the lock of the week.