After a horrible first week, I finished at 8-7 last week. There’s a trend in betting the unpredictable year-to-year NFL teams: Week 1 is always miserable, Week 2 is a little better, Week 3 is a little better than that, and after Week 4 you hit your stride. I’m not saying this week will be my stride week; but I’ll finish over .500, and from here on out I’ll hit 10 games a week. Here’s how I’m doing.

PS: One thing that should be noted is that my Locks of the Week are now 2-0. Nobody bets every game in the NFL; if you take my lock, you’ll win.

Last week: 8-7
On the Season: 12-18
Locks of the Week: 2-0

Kansas City Chiefs @ Atlanta Falcons (-6): It’s tough to bet on a rookie QB when you’re giving up six points. But it’s even tougher to bet on a QB on the road named Tyler Thigpen. This’ll be the last time in a year the Falcons will be favored by a TD (minus the extra). They won’t run like they did against the Lions, but the home field should help. Falcons cover, win by seven.

Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills (-9.5): Last week we got to see the Darren McFadden Show. The problem is that they played the Chiefs, who have a team full of rookies. The Bills defense has been good. Real good. If they can stop the Jags running game, stopping D-Fad shouldn’t be a problem. 9.5 is high. Real high. But JaMarcus Russell’s 5-17 completion to attempts last week will look good after this one. Take the Bills to cover, when by two TD’s.

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans (-5): Kerry Collins was announced the starter over Vince Young this week, which led to a three day drinking binge. Thankfully, the Titans play defense and the Texans don’t play offense. I’m feeling something like 17-7. For those that need help, that’s 10 points. Titans cover, but jump on the under at 39.

Cincinnati Bengals @ NY Giants (-13): The Bengals look like that team of individuals that never plays as a team. Marvin’s gone after this year, Chad Johnson will be traded, Carson Palmer will find a new home, and the Bengals will start over. I’m getting somewhere: Take the Giants.

Arizona Cardinals (+3) @ Washington Redskins: Kurt Warner is looking like he did when he was slinging it in Mike Martz’s system. Washington looks as good as it did since Jim Zorn took over. That came out wrong. Beating New Orleans last week was nice. But the Cardinals are looking legitimate for the time in a decade. The points are nice, but ‘Zona wins straight up.

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (-12): Even with Matt Cassel, do you want to bet against this team? If they can go to New York and win, they can win by two TD’s against the Dolphins. Ted Ginn, welcome to short-throw life with Chad Pennington.

Carolina Panthers (+3.5) @ Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson is out. Steve Smith is back. One team’s 2-0, the other is 0-2. Something just doesn’t add up. I like the Vikes, too. But take the Panthers in this one.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (-9): What do you do when you’ve got no receivers and your team is struggling? You schedule the Rams, just in the knick of time. ‘Hawks suck. But the Rams really are that bad. Seattle covers.

Detroit Lions @ San Francisco 49′ers (-4): You see the Lions offense and you want to bet on ‘em. Then you see John Kitna and his inability to not throw a thousand picks, and you kick back to your senses. Do I see another 21-0 deficit before the offense kicks in gear? I do. Niners cover.

New Orleans Saints @ Denver Broncos (-5): The Broncos are on pace to beat the Patriots scoring record from last season. We all know that won’t happen, but we’ll still be talking about that offense after Week 3. The Saints couldn’t stop Washington, who looked like that high school team coming together for the first time the week before when they played the Giants. This game has Lock of the Week written all over it, only there’s one more out there that’s better. Take the Broncos to win. Parlay it with the over, and you’ll be real happy.

Pittsburgh Steelers (+4) @ Philadelphia Eagles: I like the Eagles. They’re good. They’ve got a wide receiver that drops balls before he reaches the end zone and a running back that does everything by himself. On the other side, four points to Pittsburgh, who might be the best team in the AFC, is an awful lot. Newsflash, Philly: This defense is better than Dallas. You won’t see 80 points in this one, but you’ll see the Steelers cover.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts (-5): The Jags have never really been able to beat the Colts, and that’s when they’ve been good. Their run game stinks, their pass game is non-existent, and their offensive line continues to get hurt. If the Colts jump up early, Garrard is forced to throw against a cut throat defensive line. Me thinks last week will spark something for Peyton. Me thinks that’s really, really bad for Jacksonville. I never thought this team would start 0-3, but I just don’t see things looking up anytime soon.

Cleveland Browns (+2) @ Baltimore Ravens: Don’t jump the Ravens’ sack just because they shut down the Bengals. We’re seeing little by little that a lot of teams can do that. Cleveland’s in a hole, but they’ve played two of the best teams in football. Browns cover.

Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (+3): Three points when they’re playing at home? This has M-O-N-E-Y written all over it. It’s a Sunday Night game, and we all know how Romo does on national television. Packers win.

New York Jets (+9) @ San Diego Chargers: I’ve got no confidence in either of these teams, but the Chargers have burnt me two weeks in a row. Take the Jets.

-Lock of the Week
Tampa Bay Bucs @ Chicago Bears (-3): The Bears D is looking great. The Bucs have Brian Griese. Let’s put two and two together. Bears win 24-0.