BustedPlay

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Just read the title, and you know how I feel. For the last few weeks now — ever since LSU lost to Kentucky, USF showed us they were a lie, and Cal shit the bed like no No. 1 team has shit the bed before — I’ve been suffering thinking about a possible match-up that involves Ohio State in the National Title game again.

It’s not that I didn’t want to see an LSU-Ohio State matchup; truth be told, I wanted to. I would’ve loved nothing more than to see the SEC representative walk all over the Big Ten patsy again. An LSU-Ohio State game would’ve made the Florida-Ohio State game look like a freaking classic.

I was listening to XM Radio today (Fox Sports, I think — I’m not a very big fan of listening to Colin Cowherd make love to the Pats all day or Mike and Mike talking about whatever it is Mike and Mike talk about), and someone called in bashing the Buckeyes. The hosts of the show were quick to defend Tressel’s bunch; when speaking on the Buckeyes’ behalf, they said people only hate Ohio State because they’re good every year.

And I started thinking: Do people hate Ohio State because they’re good every year. . . . or do they hate them because they’re a consistent contender who plays nobody for three months?

My answer was the latter. I’m not a fan of the Pats, but I at least respect them — they’re genuinely good. The Buckeyes, however, are a team that come in and play their patsy Big Ten schedule, then play one team — one team! — at the end of the year, and that team in blue and yellow isn’t that great anymore (they aren’t this year, they weren’t last year — it was proven when Florida kicked around Ohio State, and it was proved when USC kicked around Michigan).

All this was supposed to be an opening paragraph to what should be the BCS Top Ten. Enjoy.

1.) LSU: They’re the best team in the country. The’ve got tough games against Arkansas and presumably Tennessee or Georgia in the SEC Title game. Win those, they’re in — the BCS made a mistake once by not putting the SEC team in the title game before (see: Aurburn), and that same mistake won’t happen twice.

2.) Oregon: Everyone is going Jayhawk crazy, but I think this team offers the best chance of beating LSU. They’ve got a mobile quarterback who’s seemingly come out of nowhere, and their offense can score on anyone. Their problem? The schedule, which gets very, very easy, while Kansas’ only gets much, much harder.

3.) Kansas Jayhawks: Don’t be surprised to see them jump Oregon with a win against Missouri followed by a win against Oklahoma in the Big 12 Title game. It’s too early to assume they’ll win those games — I wouldn’t be surprised if they were ‘dogs in both — but we’re just playing the scenarios right now.

4.) Oklahoma: They’re unlikely to get in, but it’s not impossible. It’ll require beating Kansas in the Title game, and probably an Oregon loss.

5.) Missouri: The most overrated team in the Top 10. You’ll see what I mean when the bowl season comes around.

6.) West Virginia: The team I liked in the preseason to win it all. They better not look past Cincinnati, though, who’s looked awful good these last few weeks.

7.) Ohio State: Still overrated, even at number 7. Who has this team beaten? Penn State? We’re this many games through, and your biggest win is Penn State?

8.) Arizona State: Dennis Erickson did a good job. This team will continue to build in the future.

9.) Georgia: Watch out for my Yellow Jackets. We’re quick to crown this team the best 2-loss team in the nation, but I’m not sold yet — my second favorite team is Tennessee, who has been handled quite a bit this year, and the only memory I have of the Dawgs is being down 28-0 to the Vols. That’s just not the best 2-loss team in the nation to me.

10.)Virginia Tech: Could we see another bowl matchup featuring VT and Georgia? I hope so; after the tabloids that UGA was spying on them at practice, it adds some juice to the otherwise meaningless bowl games before the National Championship.

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Here’s how I’m doing:

Last week: 2-2
On the season: Still got a ways to go
What I would’ve been had BC just scored two more points: 3-1

This week’s locks:

-South Florida @ Rutgers (+2): Based on how this season has gone thus far, Rutgers upsetting and someone else being thrust into the BCS Title game picture would only be fitting. Next up: Boston College. Rutgers win in an upset.

-Louisville (-3) @ Connecticut: I don’t have to look at who Connecticut has played to know their record is a bit inflated. I said last week Louisville as a ten point underdog was ridiculous. This week is no different. A three point favorite? Not with that offense. Connecticut is still a basketball school. And to be honest, I’d take Louisville there, too. Brian and the Boys cover the three, win by two touchdowns.

-Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (-13): I’m a real sucker for a team that’s ranked in the top ten and is favored by less than two touchdowns against a team that. . . well, stinks. They played Georgia close, sure; but Georgia hasn’t exactly been a beacon of brilliance the last few weeks. Take SC in a blowout.

-Tennessee (PICK) @ Alabama: I’m a Vols fan. They’ve got an offense. I know it’s a rivalry game, I know it’s in Tuscaloosa. All that said, the Tide sucks. UT rolls.

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I promised to take some time off betting the college ranks. I was cold. I couldn’t get anything right. Every game I bet, it went the other way. It was like someone flipping a coin in the air and me calling heads every time, for it only to land on tails ten in a row. What are the odds, ya know? Betting’s supposed to have some skill, and here I was, watching and analyzing games, and unable to win anything that was, in short, a 50/50 shot.

I’m back. I’ve watched this unpredictable college season — USC losing to Stanford, Cal ranked No. 2, BC No. 4 — and I think I have a grip on this whole thing.

So I’m going to bet four or five games this weekend. I’ve looked into it, and I feel confident again. Being confident in betting is important; it’s like baseball, kind of: Get on a streak, and it seems to stretch game after game. Hit a slump, and there’s nothing you can do to break it.

Here we go.

-Louisville(+10.5) @ Cincinnati: I know the Cardinal have struggled, but at the beginning of the season could you ever imagine Louisville being a ten point ‘dog, period, let alone to Cincinnati? Me neither. I know they’ve sucked. And they probably won’t win. But Louisville covers the ten-and-a-half.

-Georgia (-7) @ Vanderbilt: Take that UT game for what it’s worth, but remember this: Last year, the Bulldogs gave up 51 points at home to the Vols, and they weren’t that bad of a team. Past that, Vandy beat UGA on Homecoming last year, and that taste is still very fresh in every Georgia players’ mouths. 7 points? Try 21. I hate ‘em, but the Dawgs cover.

-Tennessee (-6) @ Mississippi State: I’m thinking the Vols’ mojo may be back. And even if it isn’t, last time I checked it doesn’t take a lot of mojo to beat The Rebels.

-Boston College (-14) @ Notre Dame: Being that they’re stepped on annually by Notre Dame, BC isn’t over-looking this game. Matt Ryan will toss 4 TD’s, which is 4 more than the ND offense will score. Eagles cover, win in a blowout.

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A lot of blogs are doing this, so I feel I should jump in. And with the recent nothingness in sports, why not? Which brings me to this: Each day I will try and post major conference breakdowns for all you college fanatics out there. The Big Twelve, SEC and ACC will be broken into two parts, since there’s two different divisions. All others will be covered in whole.

I’ll have a ranking posted next to each team, and for the teams in conferences broken down by divisions, that ranking doesn’t represent the ranking for the division. . . it represents the ranking for the entire conference. To see past entries, click here. On we go.

  • West Virginia (1): Hard to pick against these guys. The defense is shaky, sure, but with Pat White and Steve Slaton, there won’t be a lead they can’t come back from. Both were hurt last year, which slowed the team, but if healthy there’s no reason they can’t go undefeated. Oh, and an interesting stat, one I only know because I’m a Georgia Tech fan: The Jackets have only lost two times in their five trips to the Gator Bowl. Their first loss came to Miami, who a year later won the National Title. Their second loss? Last year versus West Virginia. We’ll hold that thought.
  • Louisville (2): People think there’ll be a fall off with Petrino gone, but Louisville is still loaded from top to bottom. They’ve got the best quarterback in the country, and maybe the best defense in the Big East. Their road block? They’ve got West Virginia in Morgantown, where foes don’t win often.
  • Rutgers (3): They’ve got USF and West Virginia at home, and could very well be undefeated before their showdown with Lousiville November 29. They’ve got Ray Rice back, yes, but they also lose 11 starters from last year.
  • USF (4): Only because it’s become a popular pick, I’ll go ahead and throw them at the four spot. They’ve apparently got a good defense — I won’t even pretend to have seen more than two of their games, and that’s even a stretch — and though they only have 3 starting seniors on their roster; the catch, however, is the other 15 returning starters from last year’s squad that went 9-4, finishing 4-3 in the Big East.
  • Pitt (5): With Dave Wannstedt as your head coach, fifth in a weak Big East is about the best you can expect. The guy had it once, I know, but it just isn’t there anymore.
  • Cincinnati (6): They were 4-3 in the Big East last year, and return 16 of their starters. The good news is they play West Virginia and Louisville at home; the bad news is they’ll beat neither, and the teams they might stack up against they play on the road.
  • Syracuse (7): They’ve always got basketball, right?
  • Connecticut (8): See: Syracuse.

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