BustedPlay

ESPN has a group of “experts” together to make their picks, and they range widely. There’s a common theme of teams in the BCS Title game: Oklahoma, UGA, Florida, USC, Ohio State, Georgia, and one brave soul picking Missouri, but some of the picks seem off. Two people say Ohio State will win it, and if there’s anything history’s taught us about Ohio State being in a national title game, it’s that won’t not just win, but they’ll get absolutely blown out.

To Todd McShay’s credit — he picked THE Ohio State University to win it all — he at least has them victors over Oklahoma, and not a team from the SEC. Other predictions throughout:

-If they’re right, Clemson will dominate the ACC. If I’m right, Clemson will be a dark horse all year long, and maybe the team that busts the BCS (think Auburn a few years back when they went undefeated in the SEC and got shafted). If Clemson beats Alabama, they’ll be a decent sized favorite the rest of the year.

-Recent odds calculated Georgia of having a 6.2 percent chance of reaching the BCS Title game. It seems low until you look at their schedule, and then you have to wonder if Vegas shot a little high. They play at South Carolina, at Arizona State, Tennessee and Alabama in back-to-back-to-back-to-back games. They get a breather with Vandy, and then it’s off to a gauntlet the likes college football has never seen: At LSU, Florida in Jacksonville — and don’t think Mighty Tim Tebow has forgotten last year — Kentucky in Lexington and then Auburn on the road. So, if you think they’ve got a 6.2 percent chance of going undefeated or only losing one, then you’re clearly no mathmetician, and you’re obviously a tad insane.

-Pittsburgh and South Florida are being picked to win the Big East. Have we forgotten about West Virginia? The team that was one game away from playing for the national title? I know South Florida has had WVU’s number over the last couple of years, but if you think they’re going to have an overall better record than WVU, then you’re smoking that same stuff the guys and gals at UGA are.

-Oklahoma seems to be a lock by these guys to win the Big 12. Missouri has a lot of talent returning, and OU is kind of notorious for late season melt downs (of course, that usually happens in a bowl game).

-Where’s some pub on my Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets? No love for my Tennessee Vols? These guys don’t know anything.

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Okay. I’ve posted on this a lot, which means I shouldn’t go over it much more, but recapping can never be done too much. Last week I went 2-2. This week? I’m switching up my style a little, have a couple of twists, and am expecting to be rolling in the dough somewhere around 9:00 Saturday night (only to start rolling in it again Sunday night, but those NFL picks will wait until tomorrow).

Anyway, in case you didn’t notice, last week had a few “misprints.” I didn’t pick an FSU team that can’t block, and I definitely didn’t pick a Tennessee team that can’t tackle. This week is free of any possible misprints that my editor may let sneak through. On we go.

--Teaser
Miami (+21) @ Oklahoma
South Florida @ Auburn (+3)
Kent @ Kentucky (-2.5)

It’s a teaser, which is one of those bets that always looks good until the games actually play themselves out. That said, I feel this one is pretty solid: I can’t see a Miami defense losing to an Oklahoma offense (without AP, mind you) by more than 21 points; Auburn looked shaky against Kansas State, sure, but at home, against South Florida, as a two point underdog? That’s money in the bank. As for Kentucky and Kent, well, it seems like a sure bet to me. Andre Woodson is one of the best players in the nation, and as hard as it is for me to bet on a Kentucky football team that doesn’t feature Tim Couch (pre-NFL-deadbeat days, obviously), it’s something I’ve got to jump on. This teaser’s a lock. Trust me.

-Straight up

-Virginia Tech (+14) @ LSU

LSU beat Mississippi State by 45. VT beat Eastern Carolina by a much slimmer margin than they were supposed to. But Matt Flynn only had 123 yards passing against Croom’s boys, and their top rusher boasted a measley 68 yards. This was against Mississippi State. Not against Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall. Sean Glennon’s as bad as they get, but VT can sit back on Brandon Ore and win a game. LSU can’t sit back on Jason Hester and Richard Murphy — Richard Murphy! — and expect to win much. Beamer knows special teams and defense. Matt Flynn’s gonna know this isn’t Mississippi State anymore. They probably won’t win, but take VT and the touchdowns.

-Troy @ Florida (-25)

Hey, it’s Troy. And better yet, it’s Florida. I don’t give a damn that Tebow’s new. Percy, Percy, Percy. Gators cover.

-Bowling Green @ Michigan State (-17)

Michigan State is that team that comes out of the gates hot and then really tanks. Thankfully, we’re in luck: It’s week two, where MSU does its best impersonation of USC. It won’t be like last week (my God, was that game ever really in question?), but MSU rolls, covers the 17.

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A lot of blogs are doing this, so I feel I should jump in. And with the recent nothingness in sports, why not? When the top story from yesterday was a non-related dog stabbing, football posts become a must. Which brings me to this: Each day I will try and post major conference breakdowns for all you college fanatics out there. The Big Twelve, SEC and ACC will be broken into two parts, since there’s two different divisions. All other conferences will be done in whole. Today we’ll focus on the SEC East, tomorrow the SEC East. Monday we’ll pick up again and, I dunno, maybe cover the Pac 10; it’ll have to be a surprise.

I’ll have a ranking posted next to each team, and for the teams in conferences broken down by divisions, that ranking doesn’t represent the ranking for the division. . . it represents the ranking for the entire conference. On we go.

  • Florida (1): They’ll be the best team in the SEC this year, and anybody from Baton Rouge who wants to argue, well, all I have to say is this: Les Miles. Urban Meyer has done nothing but great things since his arrival in Florida, and even if he’s paying players — there’s a lot of grumbling that Urban has to be doing something wrong — he’s still getting them. The defense loses a lot, but it’s hard for me to imagine that the offense is going to drop off with Tim Tebow and an older Percy Harvin. He’s smaller than Reggie Bush, sure, but also might be faster.
  • Tennessee (4): The East used to dominate the SEC, but the tides have kind of turned. The Vols pretty much lost everything resembling a starting wide receiver, but David Cutcliffe has a knack for making decent players great; Robert Meachem, who had done nothing in two years before Cutcliffe, was nearly an All-American last year. Erik Ainge is a polished four-year starter, and the defense should be solid enough to squeak out some wins. With their only tough road games coming at Florida and at Alabama (they play at Cal, but that’s out of conference and, uh, also the Pac 10. . . you know, not so difficult), the schedule favors them. They play at Kentucky to fiinish the year off, which could be a harder game than normally expected.
  • UGA (6): Yes, the Bulldogs will finish sixth overall in the SEC. Their defense will more than likely be in shambles, but being Georgia, and constantly pissing me off (I’m a Tech fan, remember?), they’ll manage to win enough close games to make me go crazy. Matthew Stafford will progress as a sophomore, and Kregg Lumpkin will handle the load at running back. After a 4-4 season last year in the SEC, Mark Richt could be under some scrutnity midway through the season.
  • Kentucky (7): Hard to imagine that Kentucky will be a team to once again be wary of. The last time people gave a damn about the Wildcats? Well, it was the glory years of Tim Couch. The reason people won’t want to face them this year? Well, it’s pretty simple: Andre’ Woodson. He’s Michael Vick without the animal rage. With Florida, LSU, and Tennessee at home, you can pretty much count on one of them being upset.
  • South Carolina (8): You have to root for The Ol’ Ball Coach, but, to be honest, his team just isn’t that good. He’s lost Ko Simpson and Sidney Rice the last couple of years, and they were two of the very few bright spots on this South Carolina team. Blake Mitchell gets in fights and doesn’t show up to practice, and their schedule is nothing to sneeze at: At Georgia, at LSU, at Arkansas, at Tennessee, and at North Carolina (yeah, the last one doesn’t seem too difficult, but people are really building up Butch Davis).
  • Vanderbilt: The players here can at least say they got a good education. And a few of ‘em played with Jay Cutler. Hey, when you play for Vandy, you look for any positives you can find.

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