I promised to take some time off betting the college ranks. I was cold. I couldn’t get anything right. Every game I bet, it went the other way. It was like someone flipping a coin in the air and me calling heads every time, for it only to land on tails ten in a row. What are the odds, ya know? Betting’s supposed to have some skill, and here I was, watching and analyzing games, and unable to win anything that was, in short, a 50/50 shot.

I’m back. I’ve watched this unpredictable college season — USC losing to Stanford, Cal ranked No. 2, BC No. 4 — and I think I have a grip on this whole thing.

So I’m going to bet four or five games this weekend. I’ve looked into it, and I feel confident again. Being confident in betting is important; it’s like baseball, kind of: Get on a streak, and it seems to stretch game after game. Hit a slump, and there’s nothing you can do to break it.

Here we go.

-Louisville(+10.5) @ Cincinnati: I know the Cardinal have struggled, but at the beginning of the season could you ever imagine Louisville being a ten point ‘dog, period, let alone to Cincinnati? Me neither. I know they’ve sucked. And they probably won’t win. But Louisville covers the ten-and-a-half.

-Georgia (-7) @ Vanderbilt: Take that UT game for what it’s worth, but remember this: Last year, the Bulldogs gave up 51 points at home to the Vols, and they weren’t that bad of a team. Past that, Vandy beat UGA on Homecoming last year, and that taste is still very fresh in every Georgia players’ mouths. 7 points? Try 21. I hate ‘em, but the Dawgs cover.

-Tennessee (-6) @ Mississippi State: I’m thinking the Vols’ mojo may be back. And even if it isn’t, last time I checked it doesn’t take a lot of mojo to beat The Rebels.

-Boston College (-14) @ Notre Dame: Being that they’re stepped on annually by Notre Dame, BC isn’t over-looking this game. Matt Ryan will toss 4 TD’s, which is 4 more than the ND offense will score. Eagles cover, win in a blowout.

Okay. I’ve posted on this a lot, which means I shouldn’t go over it much more, but recapping can never be done too much. Last week I went 2-2. This week? I’m switching up my style a little, have a couple of twists, and am expecting to be rolling in the dough somewhere around 9:00 Saturday night (only to start rolling in it again Sunday night, but those NFL picks will wait until tomorrow).

Anyway, in case you didn’t notice, last week had a few “misprints.” I didn’t pick an FSU team that can’t block, and I definitely didn’t pick a Tennessee team that can’t tackle. This week is free of any possible misprints that my editor may let sneak through. On we go.

--Teaser
Miami (+21) @ Oklahoma
South Florida @ Auburn (+3)
Kent @ Kentucky (-2.5)

It’s a teaser, which is one of those bets that always looks good until the games actually play themselves out. That said, I feel this one is pretty solid: I can’t see a Miami defense losing to an Oklahoma offense (without AP, mind you) by more than 21 points; Auburn looked shaky against Kansas State, sure, but at home, against South Florida, as a two point underdog? That’s money in the bank. As for Kentucky and Kent, well, it seems like a sure bet to me. Andre Woodson is one of the best players in the nation, and as hard as it is for me to bet on a Kentucky football team that doesn’t feature Tim Couch (pre-NFL-deadbeat days, obviously), it’s something I’ve got to jump on. This teaser’s a lock. Trust me.

-Straight up

-Virginia Tech (+14) @ LSU

LSU beat Mississippi State by 45. VT beat Eastern Carolina by a much slimmer margin than they were supposed to. But Matt Flynn only had 123 yards passing against Croom’s boys, and their top rusher boasted a measley 68 yards. This was against Mississippi State. Not against Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall. Sean Glennon’s as bad as they get, but VT can sit back on Brandon Ore and win a game. LSU can’t sit back on Jason Hester and Richard Murphy — Richard Murphy! — and expect to win much. Beamer knows special teams and defense. Matt Flynn’s gonna know this isn’t Mississippi State anymore. They probably won’t win, but take VT and the touchdowns.

-Troy @ Florida (-25)

Hey, it’s Troy. And better yet, it’s Florida. I don’t give a damn that Tebow’s new. Percy, Percy, Percy. Gators cover.

-Bowling Green @ Michigan State (-17)

Michigan State is that team that comes out of the gates hot and then really tanks. Thankfully, we’re in luck: It’s week two, where MSU does its best impersonation of USC. It won’t be like last week (my God, was that game ever really in question?), but MSU rolls, covers the 17.

I’m not a compulsive gambler, first off. But the title’s an attention grabber, and at times I feel like one.

This weekend went well. I take that back; maybe not well, but it didn’t go bad, and any time you gamble things not going bad can often be considered very good. I was 2-2. My first two games of the weekend I was 2-0, thinking 3-0 all the way, but Tennessee fell way short to Cal and I splurged on Labor Day at a game I wasn’t really sure about (I find I do this when only one game’s on; I won’t know much about either team, but still feel this pressing need to make a bet on it).

All in all, I broke even. Even’s not bad. It’s better than down. It’s not what I shoot for — last year I finished better than 60% — but it’s certainly something I’ll settle for, especially on the first weekend. Because on the first weekend things happen that don’t happen on the last weekend. This is what I learned, good and bad.

-Georgia Tech isn’t as good as the 33-3 score would indicate. I mean that. I’m a Tech fan, and I wish they were that good, but they aren’t. Their defense looked fast and Tashard Choice looked as if he could run around anybody. But Taylor Bennett, who was supposed to end our four years of quarterback disasters, looked more like a high school quarterback than a college QB. We played against a QB who’s got about two snaps of gameday experience, against an offensive line that had three new starters. I wish every game would be as easy as this first one, but it won’t be; partly because there’ll be better teams than Notre Dame, and partly because Georgia Tech isn’t as good as a first week’s score would indicate.

-Tennessee doesn’t know how to tackle. I was half-coherent watching this game (I boozed through the GT game, then drank a bottle of cham-pag-ne after the win), and I think my drunk, stumbling, unathletic body could’ve made better tackles than some of the UT players did. Who would’ve thought a defense that gave up nothing to Cal last year would give up so much this year? Tennessee’s got Army, then Florida, then the rest of the SEC. It’s going to be up hill from here.

-LSU vs. VT is going to be an all-out defensive war. I know LSU had 45 points, which initially makes you think Matt Flynn is awesome and that ground game’s got nothing to worry about, but think again: If it wasn’t for five picks, that game wouldn’t have been the blowout the final scoreboard exhibited. VT struggled with Eastern Carolina, but the defense looked fine. The early nod’s got to be to LSU, but I think this game’s going to come down to the wire.

-FSU isn’t that good anymore. I bet on FSU because I grew up in an age where FSU, even if they didn’t have the greatest scheme or coaching, always had the best athletes. That simply isn’t the case anymore. I watched last night’s game the way through. All along, all I could ask myself was this: “Did these guys really work all month long, and in that time are these really the best offensive linemen they could put on the field?” Going into the game, I was worried about Drew Weatherford; he’s very erratic, and often inaccurate. He didn’t look great in this game, but Peyton Manning would’ve looked less than superhuman if his offensive line blocked as poorly as these guys did.

-I didn’t bet on the game, but I can’t believe Michigan’s really that bad. They better get used to going on the road and seeing a lot of App. State hats and t-shirts.

We’re less than an hour away, and I’m a little jittery myself; every year around this time, I start yelling random snap counts in stores and parking lots, calling out audibles and hot routes, which normally results in scaring those around me, including my girflriend.

Hey, I’m a die-hard.

And tonight, even though it’s not my team playing (Georgia Tech/Notre Dame, 3:30), there is money involved in this one. The spread in the LSU/Mississippi St. game’s up to 20, but thankfully I got it at 18.

Let’s all hope — for my sake, anyway — that the Matt Flynn transition is a smooth one.

A lot of blogs are doing this, so I feel I should jump in. And with the recent nothingness in sports, why not? When the top story from yesterday was a non-related dog stabbing, football posts become a must. Which brings me to this: Each day I will try and post major conference breakdowns for all you college fanatics out there. The Big Twelve, SEC and ACC will be broken into two parts, since there’s two different divisions. All other conferences will be done in whole. Yesterday was the SEC East, today the SEC West. Monday we’ll pick up again and, I dunno, maybe cover the Pac 10; it’ll have to be a surprise.

I’ll have a ranking posted next to each team, and for the teams in conferences broken down by divisions, that ranking doesn’t represent the ranking for the division. . . it represents the ranking for the entire conference. On we go.

• LSU (2): It’s the team that everyone’s picking to win the SEC, and maybe even challenge for a National Title. They lost LaRon Landry, but their defense is still stacked. Matt Flynn doesn’t have Russell’s arm, but he may be more accurate, and with weapons like Early Doucet to throw to, don’t look for Flynn to have too difficult of a time adjusting to being the starter. LSU’s biggest problem: Les Miles. Good coach, but probably not the guy you expect to go unbeaten.
• Auburn (3): Their two losses came last year at home, both against opponents they were supposed to beat (first against Arkansas, then Georgia). It was hard for Auburn fans to swallow who, until October 7, thought they might have a legitimate shot at a national title (or at least a legitimate shot at Tommy Tubberville complaining about the BCS again). Brandon Cox won’t blow anyone’s mind, but he will complete 60% of his passes, and 60% of those may be to stud wideout Rod Smith. Ben Tate’s a guy most don’t know of, but he’s the next in a long line of great running backs to come out of Auburn (Cadillac, Ronnie, Kenny, now Ben). Biggest issue this team has? Florida, Georgia, LSU and Arkansas all on the road.
• Arkansas (5): So long as they have Darren McFadden playing quarterback, running back, wide receiver and linebacker, this team should be just fine. So long as their fan base is crazy and their coach has no control, this team could hit a few road blocks along the way.
• Alabama (9): Don’t look for ‘Bama to return to grace just yet. Nick Saban’s in, sure, but he doesn’t have a whole ton of talent to work with. John Parker Wilson is pretty solid at quarterback, but that’s about it. With an already tough SEC schedule — they play the entire West, and Tennessee, of course — and with a road game to FSU, it could be a long first year for newbie Nick.
• Mississippi State (10): Croom is bound to turn things around there sooner than later, right? Right?
• Ole Miss(11): They were bad last year with Pat Willis. They’ve got a decently young crop of players, but this team’s still a year away from competing in the SEC.