Every summer, I start to think about NCAA two-zero-fill-in-the-blank, and Madden two-zero-fill-in-the-blank. This year will be NCAA 2010, and Madden 2010, and given that both of my teams should be good (Georgia Tech and the Falcons), I feel a little more excited than most.

[Falcons Message Board]

I’m not somebody that really cares about draft grades the day after a draft — how many times have these so-called “experts” been wrong in the past? — but since NFL is officially over, and since we’re stuck with a few boring NBA series right now and 145 more MLB games, I figure I may as well milk this post for what it’s worth.

It’s the last time we’ll be discussing the NFL until a Bengals player gets arrested in the offseason.

How’d your team do over the weekend? I’ve got lots of different opinions from lots of different people. Click here and you can see how Pete Prisco of CBS Sportsline rates the picks; click here to see how Larry Weisman, writer for USA Today, breaks down all seven rounds. Clifton Brown, writer for Sporting News Today, has his take here; for Yahoo! Sports, go here.

I’d give you Todd McShay or Mel Kiper, Jr., but they’re douche bags and charge you $39.95 a year for their services — if I could charge everyone $39.95 to be completely wrong about how a player will turn out, I would. McShay isn’t that bad, but Kiper’s looked like a weatherman with some of his recent predictions.

Enjoy the grades. They mean nothing. At the end of the day, Calvin Johnson has to catch Matthew Stafford’s passes, and DHB wasn’t a stretch by Oakland until he officially busts in Oakland. I think I speak for a lot of people when I say I’m counting down to September. Fall, you couldn’t get here soon enough.

ESPN has a nice little piece on each team’s strength of schedule for 2009. It also notes that if you went from worst to first in the NFC South, then you’re pretty much screwed (see: Falcons, who have the fourth hardest schedule this year, with opponents’ records being a combined 150-105).

An interesting note: The Cardinals, who made the Super Bowl, have the 27th hardest schedule, or sixth easiest next year; the Minnesota Vikings, who won their division and played a first round playoff game at home, have the second easiest schedule. The Patriots, who missed the playoffs, have the third easiest schedule.

You can see all teams here. With the addition of Jay Cutler, and with the easiest schedule in the NFL, it looks as if the Bears might have an easy ride to the playoffs next year.

[ESPN]

I’ve noted many times that the NFL Combine is the most overrated event in sports when it comes to gauging talent, yet every year I get caught up in what a guy runs or what a guy jumps or what a guy throws (combine studs that probably went a bit high: JaMarcus Russell, Donte Stallworth, and just last year, Vernon Gholston).

That said, via The Big Lead, here’s some guys that impressed, and some guys that didn’t. A couple of notables on my end, from what I’ve seen on NFL Network:

Pat White, QB/WR: He ran an unofficial time of 4.49 in the 40, and then it was adjusted to a 4.55. He also jumped a solid nine feet in the broad jump, which is real important once you’re actually in the game. I know I often see guys stand in place, squat, and leap as far forward as possible. Like I said: Great gauge at talent.

Darius Heyward-Bey, WR: This guy was being talked about as a second rounder, but after running a 4.3 flat, he’s probably going to end up cracking the top 15. Michael Crabtree is still “the guy” when it comes to receivers, but Heyward-Bey is sure creeping up.

Derrick Anderson, WR: This is the guy that I think will be a solid NFL player — probably a good number two receiver — but his 4.58 40 will have schools not paying attention to whether or not he can run a route and catch the ball, and just say he’s too slow to play.

Beanie Wells, RB: I can’t tell if a 4.59 40 is good or bad for him. On one side, it’s slower than most strong safeties. But he’s 235 pounds, and at that size, how fast do you want him to run?

[The Big Lead]
Getting Listy With The Combine

Here’s how I’m doing against Vegas this year. Sorry for the abbreviated run down again this week, but I’ve got a real time crunch with work and Christmas coming up. Enjoy the picks.

Last Week: 7-6
On the Season: 115-100
Locks of the Week: 14-6

Indianapolis Colts @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+6)
Baltimore Ravens @ Dallas Cowboys (-4)
Pittsburgh Steelers (-2) @ Tennessee Titans
Miami Dolphins (-4) @ KC Chiefs
Arizona Cardinals @ New England Patriots (-7)
Cincinnati Bengals (+3) @ Cleveland Browns
Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (+5)
SF 49′ers @ St. Louis Rams (+5.5)
Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints (-7) @ Detroit Lions
Carolina Panthers @ New York Giants (-3)
New York Jets (-4) @ Seattle Seahawks
Houston Texans (-7) @ Oakland Raiders
Buffalo Bills @ Denver Broncos (-6.5)
San Diego Chargers @ Tampa Bay Bucs (-3)
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears (-4)

The NFL Pro Bowl rosters have been announced, and like every year when these things are announced, there’s already a big uproar of who’s been snubbed and who doesn’t deserve to be there. You can get both the NFC and AFC starting rosters here and figure out who you think got snubbed.

To know who deserved to go at every position I’d have to be some kind of NFL machine. As much as I love the NFL, I couldn’t tell you if every guy picked deserved to be there or not. That said, here’s just a couple of snubs that jump out at me.

-John Abraham: He’s probably the biggest snub I see. The guy has 15.5 sacks and is the only reason Atlanta’s defense has been decent (if you look at that roster, their next best defensive player is Curtis Lofton, a rookie, or Lawyer Milloy, a 36 year-old). He had three sacks against the Bucs, and one of them came in overtime to help Matt Ryan and the offense get the ball in good field position to set up the winning field goal.

Brandon Jacobs: Maybe he doesn’t have the stats and yards of the other guys. But the Giants were 11-1 with that guy in the roster, and we all saw Sunday night what happens when that guy goes out. He’s the most important player to his team, and he’s the oil that helps run that offensive machine.

DeAngelo Williams: This one deserves an asterisk, because it’s not like you can take out AP, Michael Turner, or Clinton Portis. But the guy had a killer year.

Haloti Ngata: Big reason the Ravens D is back to being the Ravens D. He anchors that defensive line.

Brett Favre: This isn’t a snub. He actually made it in. How in the hell did Brett Favre make the Pro Bowl? This is another reason the NFL shouldn’t let fan votes. Every no-nothing football fan votes for Favre because they know him. Favre should give his ticket to Matt Cassel.

Calvin Johnson: He’s playing on the worst team maybe in the history of the league. He’s had four different starting quarterbacks. He’s still got 1,165 yards, 10 touchdowns, and is averaging 17.9 yards per catch. He’s Randy Moss, only there’s no players around him. A team would get a steal if they could somehow trade for this guy in the off-season.

It was a good week, and there’s a lot of questions left as to who will be playoff bound in 2008. Dallas and Tampa Bay have the edge in the NFC, with Atlanta and Philly a game and a game and a half behind, respectively.

In the AFC, the Jets, Pats and Dolphins all battle for the East. Indy leads the Wild Card, and the AFC West could very well come down to the last game of the season if San Diego wins and Denver loses next week.

Here’s my observations from Week 15:

• The Saints are out of playoff contention this year, but the last few games have them ready for next year. This team is finally learning they can run the ball and win.
• Huge win for the Falcons, keeping them alive in the playoff race. This team will be upset if they miss the playoffs, but at 9-5, they could lose their last two and still call this season a major success.
• The Redskins need to figure out that offense. Losing to Cincy is just inexcusable.
• Of the Dolphins’ last six games, only one team, the Pats, had a winning record. In that six game span, it was their only loss.
• If the Jets make the playoffs, they can send a nice thank you letter to JP Losman and the idiotic Bills coaching staff. Run the football, Dick.
• The Lions have two more games to try and take one. Calvin Johnson continues to perform even with a bad team around him.
• The Chargers finally had a close win go their way. They’ve been an absolute bust this year, but if they win and Denver loses, they’ll essentially have a one-game playoff in Week 17 when they head to Denver.
• Houston will be a very good team next year, but I’ve said that for the last three years.
• I’m hoping that performance the Vikings put on wasn’t any indication of what they’ll do to the Falcons on Sunday. Atlanta really needs to win this game.
• When I watch them, I don’t feel the Panthers are the best team in the NFC, but that might be hard to argue right now.
• The Ravens have a right to be pissed about how that game ended. If the call on the field put the ball at the one-inch line, what on that replay said otherwise?
• Other than a bad call, Pittsburgh won for one simple reason: The Ravens played prevent defense, when their blitzes messed Roethlisberger and Co. up all night. Stick to what’s working, Rex. Stick to what’s working.
• The Giants are in trouble. I said back at the beginning of the season that Brandon Jacobs is what makes this offense tick. He’s proving my point right now.

Last Week: 11-5
On the Season: 108-94
Locks of the Week: 14-6

Sorry, guys, but this week won’t have any explanations. Time is short, but I’ll still give you my picks, and given my record and recent run (three of the last four weeks I’ve called 10 winners or more), that should be enough. Here we go.

New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears (-3)
Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+1.5)
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts (-17)
Washington Redskins @ Cincinnati Bengals (+7)
San Francisco 49′ers (+6.5) @ Miami Dolphins
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ St. Louis Rams
Buffalo Bills @ NY Jets (-7.5)
Tennessee Titans (-3) @ Houston Texans
Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5) @ Baltimore Ravens
Denver Broncos (+7.5) @ Carolina Panthers
San Diego Chargers @ KC Chiefs (+6)
Minnesota Vikings @ Arizona Cardinals (-3)
New York Giants @ Dallas Cowboys (-3)
Cleveland Browns (+14) @ Philadelphia Eagles

Last Week: 9-6
On the Season: 97-89
Locks of the Week: 13-5

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers (-10): The last time these two teams played, the Chargers defense had six sacks. Coincidentally, that was the last time the Chargers looked like the Chargers. San Diego is done with their playoff run. But lay the 10 and run with it.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts (-14): It’s a high spread, but are you really gonna bet the Bengals at this point in the season?

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears (-7): Take another high spread. The Jags really are that bad on the road.

Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers (-6): The Texans lead the league in interceptions. That should help Green Bay’s really bad defense get a lift.

Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans (-14): I know you’re seeing a string of home teams and favorites, which is normally disaster, but it isn’t every day you get the best defense in the league against Ken Dorsey. Yeah. Take the Titans.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (+10): I feel like one of these days this team will cover a spread. And they almost beat Minnesota in Minnesota (if it wasn’t for a bone-headed QB running out of the back of the end zone, the game would have been tied). Take the Lions to cover the 10.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants (-7): These Giants just don’t get distracted by off-field issues. It won’t happen this week, either.

Atlanta Falcons (+3) @ New Orleans Saints: Take the over (52) in this one.

New York Jets (-3) @ San Francisco 49′ers: Jets are an up and down team. Last week was down. If pattern follows, this week should be up.

Miami Dolphins (+1) @ Buffalo Bills: Miami hasn’t looked hot, but Buffalo’s looked worse.

Kansas City Chiefs (+10) @ Denver Broncos: With a defense as bad as the Broncos’ D, you gotta take the points. And KC beat them, so I feel this one will be closer than it should be.

St. Louis Rams @ Arizona Cardinals (-13): They’re a good home team. Cards cover at home. Take ‘em.

Dallas Cowboys @ Pittsburgh Steelers (-3): Tony Romo has a hard time on nationally televised games — which this is — especially when he plays against good defenses — which Pittsburgh has. This one should be a lock. Pitt covers.

Tampa Bay Bucs @ Carolina Panthers (-3): Take a home team whenever in the NFC South. Oh wait, I picked the Falcons…

-Locks of the Week:

New England Patriots (-4.5) @ Seattle Seahawks: Has anyone seen Seattle’s defense? This one should be a gimme.

Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens (-5): Are. You. Kidding. Me? Baltimore has the best run defense in the league. Washington can’t pass, anyway. Look for a 31-7 score here. Lock this one up. Bet the house. Ravens cover in the first five minutes.

1.) New York Giants: Can’t really argue this. Even without Plaxico, they can’t seem to be stopped right now.

2.) Tennessee Titans: They’re arguably the quietest 11-1 team I’ve ever seen. Not many people are picking them to win the Super Bowl.

3.) Tampa Bay Bucs: Great defense. Not a lot of turnovers. It’s a recipe for winning in the playoffs.

4.) Pittsburgh Steelers: The D played well. I still think they’re vulnerable to really good offenses, though.

5.) Carolina Panthers: They’ve got a huge game with Tampa this Sunday. It might very well decide who wins the South.

6.) Atlanta Falcons: They’re the most amazing story of the season. Win three of the next four, and they’re guaranteed a playoff spot.

7.) Indianapolis Colts: Colts are getting hot at the right time of the season. This win was big, because their offense didn’t have to lift a finger to pull it off.

8.) New York Jets: You can’t lose at home to the Broncos. Not that bad.

9.) Dallas Cowboys: Big test in Pittsburgh this weekend. Real big.

10.) Baltimore Ravens: Defense is playing great, so long as it’s not up against the Giants or Colts. Joe Flacco has really come a long way since the beinning of the season.

11.) New England Patriots: Matt Cassel’s stock just took a serious hit.

12.) Washington Redskins: The offense has stalled. This team isn’t making the playoffs this year.

13.) Arizona Cardinals: They’ll make the playoffs because of the division they’re in, but this team isn’t battle-tested come January.

14.) Denver Broncos: Their division stinks. But it doesn’t take away from the job Shannahan has done with so many injuries to that defense and running game.

15.) Minnesota Vikings: They’re biggest key down the stretch: Do the Williams’ boys get suspended or not? That’s what everything hinges on in Minnesota.

16.) Miami Dolphins: Too many close games against too many bad teams.

17.) Philadelphia Eagles: Good win against the Cards. But given that the Cards are 0-4 on the East this year — and given that one of those losses they gave up 56 points — I wonder if this game was more of an indication of how far Philly has come over the last week or just how bad Arizona is on the road out East.

18.) Chicago Bears: They’re fading fast. That Falcons loss with 0:12 left is really hurting them right now.

19.) New Orleans Saints: They needed to beat the Bucs. Their playoff hopes are all but dead.

20.) Buffalo Bills: What happened to this team’s offense?

21.) Green Bay Packers: Fans will blame Aaron Rodgers and say this team would be better with Favre, but facts are facts — the offense is fine and the defense is terrible.

22.) Houston Texans: Mario Williams will have another double digit sack season.

23.) SF 49′ers: Give this team credit for playing so hard since under Singletary.

24.) Jacksonville Jaguars: They were a trendy pick at the beginning of the year. If they can revamp that offensive line in the off season, I think they’ll be okay.

25.) San Diego Chargers: It’s time to just say this is a bad defense and an unpredictable offense.

26.) Cleveland Browns: Ken Dorsey’s first test? The Titans defense. Should be a fun watch.

27.) Kansas City Chiefs: Give this team a couple of years, and I think they’ll actually be decent.

28.) Oakland Raiders: How do you bet Denver on the road and then lose to KC at home?

29.) Seattle Seahawks: This team has talent. It’ll be scary to see them just add more with a high draft pick. That secondary has got to get fixed.

30.) St. Louis Rams: So much for playing better under Haslett. That was a two week illusion.

31.) Cincinnati Bengals: The season is over. At least they aren’t winless.

32.) Detroit Lions: They still are. And probably will stay that way until Week 8 or 9 of next year.