Last Week: 8-6
On the Season: 32-41 (But I’m 16-11 over the last two weeks; I’m getting back up there)
Locks of the Week: 4-1

This week’s games:

Oakland Raiders @ New Orleans Saints (-7): The Saints were moving the ball up and down the field against Minnesota, and they’ve got a much better defense. Come to think of it, they’ve also got a better offense. Oakland is coming off the Lane Kiffin fiasco, and something tells me this team will be lost on the field. Saints have no D, but ride the Reggie Bush high for now. New O’leans covers.

Baltimore Ravens @ Indianapolis Colts (-4): I think last week was the coming out party for the Colts. This game worries me. I wouldn’t bet it if I didn’t have to. But if you do, take Indy at home.

Cincinnati Bengals @ New York Jets (-5.5): Bravo to Carson Palmer and the Bengals, who have kept these games close. But with a week off to rest, take the Jets to win by a TD.

Carolina Panters @ Tampa Bay Bucs (-1): The Panthers have been good because they’ve really been able to run the ball. Guess what? Tampa Bay doesn’t really let people run the ball. Jeff Garcia is back in, but who really thinks Brian Griese is the better guy to go with? I love this pick. Bucs cover, win by 10.

Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings (-13): The Lions have been outscored 86-0 in all of their games before they ever get their first touchdown. That’s a bad stat, unless you’re a gambler and you’re going against them. Vikes cover.

Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons (+4): I hate this game. Really, really do. The Falcons are that team you’re never going to get a read on. But every game they’ve been at home they’ve covered. And on the year they’re 3-2 against the spread. I like the points at home. Take the Falcons.

Miami Dolphins (+3) @ Houston Texans: Last week was probably rock bottom. Rebounding will be hard. Take the team on the roll. Time for more of the Wildcat Formation. Ronnie Brown, Dolphins run all over Houston.

St. Louis Rams @ Washington Redskins (-13): You fire your coach and replace him with the defensive coordinator that hasn’t stopped an offense he’s played all year? Odd choice. ‘Skins have surprised me. And I’m tired of betting against them and losing. Washington covers.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Denver Broncos (-3): If the Jags can’t run, they can’t win. And this year, they aren’t able to play defense, either. Ben Roethlisberger threw all over this team. What do you think Denver’s going to do? This should be easy: Take the Broncos.

Philadelphia Eagles (-4) @ San Francisco 49′ers: It’s bounce back week for the Eagles.

Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals (+5): Too many points at home. And has anyone really thought the ‘Boys look like a Championship team right now? Too many close calls, and Tony Romo has often looked lost back in the pocket.

New England Patriots (+5) @ San Diego Chargers: The Chargers just burn me way too much when I bet on them.

Lock of the Week:

New York Giants (-8) @ Cleveland Browns: The Giants have been way too good against bad defenses. And their defense, without Usi and Michael, hasn’t missed a beat, and may have somehow gotten better. The road doesn’t get any easier for Romeo Crennel. Giants win, 3,217-3.

I observed a few things this weekend: One, I can’t win a bet against the spread right now to save my life. Honestly. Teasers, parlays, straight up, money lines. . . you name it. I can’t win. I’m in a funk, and I promise to get out of it. If you’re someone that says they predicted the Dolphins win over New England, well, you’re not fooling anyone. That said, here’s my observations from this week.

• The Falcons are a really, really good team when they play a really, really bad team.
• Herm Edwards won’t be coaching the Chiefs after this year’s 1-15 record. Looking ahead, they’ve got one game they’ll be favored: Week 16 at home with the Dolphins.
• It took a small scale miracle to come back and win a game they had no business winning, but you’ve gotta keep giving it to the Bills for figuring out ways to win. They may just be the team to beat in the AFC East.
• He’s going to get fired, but considering what he’s working with, Lane Kiffin isn’t doing a bad job.
• How many times this year do you think we’ll see Brian Griese have 67 attempts and throw for more than 400 yards?
• He didn’t look bad, but the big play just isn’t there for the Bears with Kyle Orton. His longest pass of the season? 32 yards. It may not be long before Sexy Rexy is back.
• Having played the Chargers, Bears, and Vikings in their first three games, the Panthers have to be pretty happy about being 2-1. The Vikes, on the other hand, can’t be too thrilled about 1-2.
• Sure, Tom Brady wasn’t there. But how many times was the Wild Hog formation going to work in this game before the New England D figured it out? Something to confess: This Patriots defense is getting older and older, and it’s finally starting to catch up with them. Thank you, Ronnie Brown, for having a coming out party the week my fantasy team is playing you.
• Say goodbye to Marvin Lewis. You can’t blame him for the loss, but this Cincy team has been spiraling downward since their loss to Pittsburgh three years ago in the playoffs.
• Are the Titans the best team in football right now? They don’t have a ton of star power, but they play great defense and just enough offense.
• The Texans were a potential surprise team. So much for that.
• How in the hell are the Redskins 2-1? I watched them live against New York, and my only thought is that they’re maybe a really good home team and a really poor away team. Good teams just don’t play the way they did that first game of the season.
• The Lions have been down 21-0, 21-0, and now 21-3. With the offensive firepower they have, there’s just no excuse for that. And at some point, stack some guys in the box so teams don’t average 10 yards per carry on you.
• Speaking of no defense: The Rams have been out-scored 115-29. Trade Torri, trade Stephen Jackson, and start over.
• Denver is on pace to break New England’s scoring record set just last year.
• The Eagles have everything they need to get to a Super Bowl, and they’re starting to prove it little by little.
• The Pats are 2-1. The Colts are 1-2. The Chargers are 0-3. What is happening to the AFC?
• Time to put a timeline on when Brady Quinn gets his first start.
• The Cowboys are the toast of the NFC, and they proved it by beating Green Bay on the road.

With the draft coming up, I’m going to try and mock this thing as best I can; and, based on Mel Kiper’s past predictions, I can probably do better. You’ll see his mock drafts all over the web the next few months, but be advised: One, the guy’s a terrible judge in talent and, two, he’s seldom right. We’ll see how I do, but I can’t imagine doing much worse.

Today’s pick: Miami Dolphins, who hold the No. 1 selection.

-The Dolphins have publicly said they’ll shop the first draft pick, and why not? The only real “Star” potential is Darren McFadden, and there’s not a whole lot of point in wasting a number one pick on a running back when you spent a number two pick on a running back three years ago.

The experts are saying Miami goes for Glenn Dorsey, Freak Man Child from LSU, but I’m thinking differently; do you really take a number one pick and use it on a franchise DT, no matter how big or dominant he is? Outside of Albert Haynesworth, is there a DT that makes such a big difference when he’s on the field that you’ll invest the next 10 years of your franchise on him?

I’m not saying Glenn Dorsey will be a bad player. Truth is, he’ll probably be one of the best players in this draft. But with the number one selection, and with Cleo Lemon as their current starter, I can’t see them passing up the opportunity to get a franchise QB who get that city buzzing again.

Insert: Matt Ryan. The skeptics will say he wasn’t that great his senior year (he started off well, but he slid at the end), but the skeptics then haven’t taken a look at BC’s depth chart at WR. He was working with next to nothing, and seven weeks into the season had his team positioned to make a National Title run. Get him some receivers in Miami to go with Ted Ginn and Ronnie Brown, and the Tuna’s got himself a start.

This one’s gonna run a little differently. For the previous drafts, click here. In the previous “Mel Kiper’s Not Always Right” additions, busts have been pretty clear; this one, it’ll be a little different. I’m going to compare them to their rookie counterparts. With that said, here we go.

-Overhyped

• Vernon Davis, 1st Round (pick 6): He only had 265 yards and 3 touchdowns. As first year tight ends go, that’s not that bad. Especially first year tight ends that have Alex Smith throwing their way.
• Michael Huff, 1st Round (pick 7): He’s hard to put here because he started all 16 games. But he didn’t have a pick and only had 72 tackles. He’s gonna be good, I’m certain, but he was supposed to be one of the best players in that draft and wasn’t.
• Johnathan Joseph, 1st Round (pick 24): He had 58 tackles with no picks. The Bengals were pretty pleased, though; he was only arrested once.
• Haloti Ngata, 1st Round (pick 11): He had 31 tackles and one sack. I think he’ll be good in that defense, but he didn’t look like a top 15 talent last year (but his hair did).

-Underhyped

• Donte Whitner, 1st Round (pick 8): He was drafted high, which makes him hard to be underhyped, but when Buffalo made this pick, everyone around the NFL had a collective head scratching. He turned out okay, though: He had 105 tackles and an interception.
• Ernie Sims, 1st Round (pick 9): Maybe Matt Millen should take this as an indication that there are other good players that don’t play wide receiver. Sims was second on the team with 124 tackles on the year.
• Kamerion Wimbley, 1st Round (pick 13): I figured the Browns picked another dud when this guy came off the board. A year later, he’s got 11.5 sacks.
• Tamba Hali, 1st Round (pick 20): He had 8 sacks, which is pretty good. It’s especially good when considering a defensive end who was drafted before him, whom we’ll get to shortly.
• Joseph Addai, 1st Round (pick 30): He had a better year than Edge did, and he won a Super Bowl.

-Steals

• DeMeco Ryans, 2nd Round (pick 33): Rookie of the year, and one of the few bright spots for the Texans last year. He had 156 tackles, 3.5 sacks and one interception. If only their only their other picked lived up to such promise.
• Devin Hester, 2nd Round (pick 57): This one’s kinda obvious. He’ll probably never be a legitimate DB in this league, but he’ll be a guy who’s a constant threat to return punts and kicks every game he’s in.
• Maurice Jones-Drew, 2nd Round (pick 60): He averaged 5.7 yards per carry, and now the Jags can finally not worry about Fred Taylor getting injured every time he’s tackled. . . or slightly shoved out of bounds.
• Jerious Norwood, 3rd Round (pick 79): He only had 633 yards, but also only had 99 carries. He’s one of the fastest guys in the league, and if he gets the chance to be an every down back, he’ll be awful good.

-Busts

• Mario Williams, 1st Round (pick 1): He had 4.5 sacks, which isn’t that bad for a rookie. But it is bad for a rookie who was chosen before Reggie Bush, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, and pretty much anyone else taken in the first round.
• Brodrick Bunkley, 1st Round (pick 14): I loved this guy at FSU, but he hasn’t been so hot in the league. Nine tackles isn’t exactly a great start, especially when the team you’re playing for (the Eagles) were slim on the defensive line due to injuries.
• Jason Alen, 1st Round (pick 16): Nick Saban drafted this guy because he played against him. He was projected to start, and ended the year with only 20 tackles.

With the draft coming up, I’m going to post a past draft each day, starting with 2002. It’ll be broken down into three parts: Overhyped, Underhyped, Steal, and Bust.

On we go.

-Overhyped

Alex Smith, 1st Round (pick 1): He’s only been in the league two years, but so have every other player that’ll be covered here. That said, his stats — though not terrible — haven’t been great. He showed a vast improvement last year with 16 touchdowns and 16 interceptions, but vast improvement isn’t a hard thing to show when that ratio was 1:11 the year before.

Braylon Edwards, 1st Round (pick 3): Maybe. A little? Hard to say he’s overhyped when Charlie Frye is throwing him the ball, but his stats haven’t been that of a number one, big time receiver.

Cedric Benson, 1st Round (pick 4): Six touchdowns in two years, but he averages 4.1 yards per carry over his career. He hasn’t gotten the carries he’s wanted, but this year the running load’s on his shoulders.

Antrel Rolle, 1st Round (pick 8): Injured just about his entire rookie campaign, Antrel Rolle hasn’t proven to be much of a shutdown corner. He’s got two picks in two years, and I still think he should be a safety.

Erasmus James, 1st Round (pick 18): Coming out of Wisconsin, he was supposed to be one of the next great pass rushers. Plagued by injury, he’s got 5 sacks in two years.

Marcus Spears, 1st Round (pick 20): The Cowboys were thought to have had one of the best drafts by getting Spears and Ware. While Ware’s a beast, Spears has notched only 2.5 sacks in his first two years in the league.

Aaron Rodgers, 1st Round (pick 24): I can’t officially put him as a bust; he’s been in limbo for the last two years, waiting for Brett Favre to finally retire. Poor Aaron waited in the draft lobby for 23 picks — after there was talk of him going number one overall — for this: Playing behind Brett Favre, wondering when the old man who’s throwing picks like it’s going out of style is finally going to give it up.

-Underhyped

Cadillac Williams, 1st Round (pick 5): He was picked over by Ronnie Brown but managed 1,100 yards his first year, earning him the rookie of the year award. He didn’t have stellar stats last year, but I can give you three reasons why: Chris Simms, Bruce Gradkowski, Tim Rattay. G

DeMarcus Ware, 1st Round (pick 11): He can play linebacker or end, and is a freak at both. He’s got 19.5 sacks in his first two years, and has become the anchor of the Dallas defense.

Shawne Merriman, 1st Round (pick 12): Yeah, there’s some steroids involved. But that hasn’t stopped Barry from breaking records and getting MVP’s. He’s one of the best players in the league, and maybe one of the craziest (you’re still in first, Sean Taylor).

Fabian Washington, 1st Round (pick 23): He struggled his rookie year. But he had 4 picks last year for a Raiders defense that, surprisingly, was pretty good.

Heath Miller, 1st Round (pick 30): The man’s got 11 touchdowns in two years and is a tight end. And he was a pretty big part in getting to, and winning, the Super Bowl.

-Steals

Pacman Jones, 1st Round (pick 6): A section usually reserved for guys drafted after the first round, I can’t omit Pacman as a steal. He gave the city of Nashville and many others across this great nation some of the best off-field stories they’ve ever heard.

Lofa Tatupa, 2nd Round (pick 44): 226 tackles, 4 picks and 5.5 sacks in his first two years. Think he qualifies.

Darrent Williams, 2nd Round (pick 56): What happened to him was a tragedy. But he was a solid cornerback who might have been a number one guy had he not played with Champ Bailey.

Justin Miller, 2nd Round (pick 57): His stats don’t read that well (he doesn’t have a pick), but he’s become a solid cornerback who’s rarely beat in coverage.

Frank Gore, 3rd Round (pick 65): He’s got a titanium leg now, but last year’s stats alone make him a steal: He was five yards shy of 1,700 while averaging nearly 5.5 yards per carry with 8 touchdowns.

Maurice Clarett, 3rd Round (pick 101): Comedic value, people.

Marion Barber, 4th Round (pick 109): Julius Jones is listed as the starter, but more times than not last year Marion Barber was getting the carries. He only had 654 yards, but was a fantasy steal with 14 touchdowns.

Brandon Jacobs, 4th Round (pick 110): We’ll see how he pans out as an every day back (my guess is not that good). But getting 16 touchdowns from the 110th pick isn’t so shabby.

-Busts

Troy Williamson, 1st Round (pick 7): A friend of mine was good friends with Kenny Irons (Auburn RB), who played with Troy at South Carolina. I’ve met the guy, and he’s really nice, which makes this extra hard: He’s really not good. After running the blazing 4.2 at the combine, he’s done little to establish himself as a top receiver in the league; he has 827 yards and 2 touchdowns in two years.

Mike Williams, 1st Round (pick 10): Took a year off to get fat, and he’s never been back to his USC form. I was critical when the Lions made this pick, but at the same time in agreement; sure, Charles Rogers was a bust, but Mike Williams — this guy! — was as sure-handed and good of a receiver as there was. Last year Fat Mike had 8 receptions for 99 yards and 1 touchdown. It’s almost as if he and Charles are competiting for that “bigger bust” status right now.

Again, not many busts. It’s hard after two years to really establish if a guy’s a bust. Oh, and sorry for these being posted so late today. I’ve had terrible troubles with my internet today, and am lucky to be getting these up at all. I’ll have last year’s draft up tomorrow.

With the draft coming up, I’m going to post a past draft each day, starting today with 2002. It’ll be broken down into three parts: Overhyped, Underhyped, Steal, and Bust.

On we go.

-Overhyped

• Eli Manning, 1st Round (pick 1): The Chargers probably aren’t too upset daddy’s boy didn’t want to play in San Diego. Phillip Rivers has made a slow but smooth transition, while Eli’s struggling mightily to adjust in New York. Good call on where he should play, Archie.
• Sean Taylor, 1st Round (pick 6): He made the Pro Bowl last year, but struggled his first two years. He was called the next Ronnie Lott coming out of Miami, but has had problems with the law, as well as issues with Joe Gibbs. He’s fun to watch, though; how many other crazies do you know that are going to kill the punter during the Pro Bowl game?
• Reggie Williams, 1st Round (pick 9): His best season came last year when he had 616 yards and 4 touchdowns. In his three years in the league, he has only two catches of more than 40 yards.
• Michael Clayton, 1st Round (pick 15): He had nearly 1,193 yards and 7 touchdowns his first year in the league. Since then: 728 yards and one touchdown. This, I’m guessing, is why Gruden’s desperately hoping Calvin falls in their lap at the four spot this year.
• Michael Jenkins, 1st Round (pick 29): He’s not overhyped, because he was never really hyped, but I can’t label him a bust, and I need to bash him somehow. I’m a Falcons fan, and am sick and tired of watching him drop balls. If you haven’t seen Jenkins play, it’s probably because he’s most recently been on the bench.
• Ahmad Carroll, 1st Round (pick 25): Drafted by Green Bay, he sucked and they got rid of him. He’s got three career interceptions, one of which came last year with the Jags. All in all, he hasn’t been what he was originally thought to be.

-Underhyped

• Steven Jackson, 1st Round (pick 24): Big Steven Jackson fan. Have you played with this guy on Madden? He’s got good speed, great vision, and can run over linebackers. Getting him at number 24 is a steal.
• Vince Wilfork, 1st Round (pick 21): I remember watching this draft and wondering when some team was going to take the monster from Miami. Unfortunately, he was taken by those dirty, winning, annoying Patriots, and has been a tremendous success ever since.
• Jonathan Vilma, 1st Round (pick 12): Speaking of monsters from Miami: Vilma’s been one of the best linebackers in the league since he got drafted. He was voted defensive rookie of the year in 2004, and has since notched 169 and 113 tackle seasons (he’s also got five career picks).
• Lee Evans, 1st Round (pick 13): JP Losman’s glad they grabbed this guy. His worst season was 743 yards and 7 touchdowns; his best was last year, where he had 1,292 yards and 8 touchdowns, becoming one of the best receivers in the league.
• Tommie Harris, 1st Round (pick 14): Watch last year’s Bears defense with Tommie Harris, then watch that same defense without him. It’s a big, big difference.
• Ben Roethlisberger, 1st Round (pick 11): He won his first fifteen games in the league in year one. He won a Super Bowl in year two. He ran into a car while on his motorcycle in year three –without a helmet, mind you — but still. He’s won a Super Bowl within three years, so he’s gotta be considered underhyped.

-Steals

• Julius Jones, 2nd Round (pick 43): He’s gotta share the ball with Marion Barber, so his numbers are down a little. But he’s a very good back, and one that’s certainly worth your money in the second round.
• Bob Sanders, 2nd Round (pick 44): Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu, Bob Sanders. That’s the order for the three best safeties in the league.
• Matt Schaub, 3rd Round (pick 90): He’s done next to nothing. But while doing nothing, the starting quarterback kinda sucked. The end result: A trade, some draft picks, and a big contract for a guy who’s done very little. The Falcons drafted a guy in the third round; in return, they moved up in this draft and got a second round pick for next year. Not bad for a backup.
• Shaun Phillips, 4th Round (pick 98): He had 11.5 sacks last year, which make up for any bad stats the previous two years.
• Nathan Vasher, 4th Round (pick 110): He’d look more like a steal if it wasn’t for that game two years ago against the Panthers in the playoffs.

-Busts

• Robert Gallery, 1st Round (pick 2): He was supposed to redefine the offensive lineman. Since he entered the league, he’s been knocked over by ends and tackles — depending whether Oakland put him at guard or tackle — and just hasn’t been the pro anyone thought he would be. He ran an almost identical 40 that Joe Thomas just ran, which, if you’re one of these reliant combine people who’s about to draft Joe Thomas, has to make you wonder.
• Marcus Tubbs, 1st Round (pick 23): 60 tackles and 6 sacks in three years. There’s worse, but this class doesn’t have too many busts, so I’ll pick on ‘em when I can.
• Chris Perry, 1st Round (pick 26): He plays behind Rudi Johnson, but 337 yards in three years is still pretty sad. If only he was still playing Notre Dame’s defense. . .

I’ll have 2005’s draft up tomorrow. Sorry for the lack of busts in this one; I was upset, too. Anyway, check back tomorrow.

With the draft coming up, I’m going to post a past draft each day, starting today with 2002. It’ll be broken down into three parts: Overhyped, Underhyped, Steal, and Bust.

On we go.

-Overhyped

• Dewayne Robertson, 1st Round (pick 4): I put him as overhyped, but I do so with an asterisk. He was supposed to come in and dominate, but his rookie year was a bust; since then, though, he’s steadily gotten better. But he’s not a top five or ten defensive tackle in the league, which is why he’s here.
• Terence Newman, 1st Round (pick 5): He’s a solid tackler, but unfortunately isn’t a safety. In his four years in the league, he’s only managed 12 picks, and at times has looked very vulnerable to the deep ball.
• Byron Leftwich, 1st Round (pick 7): I’ll admit that I was on this bandwagon. I remember watching him at Marshall while his offensive lineman were carrying him to the line of scrimmage because he was too injured to walk (he deserved the Heisman for that, and maybe an Oscar as well). He’s got 51 touchdowns with 36 interceptions in his career, which isn’t shabby, but was most recently benched in favor of David Garrard.
• Marcus Trufant, 1st Round (pick 11): This kid was a stud at Washington State, and while he’s had his moments in Seattle, he hasn’t lived into the billing of being a number one corner. He’s got 9 picks in his career, and only had one last year.
• Bryant Johnson, 1st Round (pick 17): I can’t call him a bust, because he has put up some numbers. But those numbers are small and, playing next to Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin, aren’t looking to get much bigger. He had 740 yards and 4 touchdowns last year, which makes him a respectable number 3 receiver.

-Underhyped

• Andre Johnson, 1st Round (pick 3): Hard to be underhyped as the third pick. Also hard to put up nearly 4,000 yards in four years with David Carr throwing you the ball. Not many touchdowns, sure (only 17), but put him with any other offense and he’d be a monster (except you, Cleveland).
• Troy Polamalu, 1st Round (pick 16): Save Ed Reed, he’s probably the best safety in the league. He can cover, hit, tackle, and when he gets a pick he’s always explosive. And his hair’s fun to watch.
• Rex Grossman, 1st Round (pick 22): I’ll catch some scrutiny, but whatever. He went to a Super Bowl. Yeah, he’s not very good, but, ya know. . . he went to a Super Bowl. That’s the only stat I can use, because I’m not pulling out his injuries or touchdown-to-interception ratio.
• Willis McGahee, 1st Round (pick 23): He was one of my favorite players to watch in college, up until his knee turned backwards. He shook it off, though; look for him to have an incredible year in Baltimore.
• Larry Johnson, 1st Round (pick 27): If you’ve played fantasy football, you already know. . .

-Steals

• Rashean Mathis, 2nd Round (pick 39): Champ Baiiley, Asante Samuel. . . Rashean Mathis? I dunno. My mind’s kinda blanked right now, but I can’t think of three other guys I’d rather have playing corner. He was third in the league with 8 interceptions last year, and now has 20 through his career.
• Anquan Boldin, 2nd Round (pick 54): Everyone talked about how slow his 40 was. He set a rookie record for catches in 2003, and has since been named to the Pro Bowl. He was seventh in the league last year with 1,203 yards, and though he only grabbed four touchdowns, most of that blame can be put on Kurt Warner’s shoulders.
• Osi Umenyiora, 2nd Round (pick 56): He was injured most of last year, but still managed six sacks on the season. When both are healthy, he and Michael Strahan might be the best pass rushing duo in the league.
• Lance Briggs, 3rd Round (pick 68): He’s been complaining about money and franchise tags, but he’s a two-time Pro Bowler now. Without being in Urlacher’s shadow, he might have an even better season next year (that is, if he’s playing).
• Jason Witten, 3rd Round (pick 69): He’s one of the best tight ends in the game. He has over 2,800 yards in four season with 14 touchdowns. He can block, he can catch, and he can run.
• Asante Samuel, 4th Round (pick 120): Read the comments posted about Rashean Mathis. If it wasn’t for a guy whose last name is Bailey, he’d be the best cover corner in the league. Now I just have to figure out how New England — a team, quarterback and coach I despise — consistently drafts guys so high that are so good.
• Justin Griffith, 4th Round (pick 121): A fullback that doesn’t get much credit. But he’s been to two Pro Bowls, and he’s been a big reason that Atlanta has been the best rushing team in the league the last few years.
• Robert Mathis, 5th Round (pick 138): He’s not much for run support, but as third-down specialists go, he’s a nasty pair with Dwight Freeney.

-Busts

• Charles Rogers, 1st Round (pick 2): This is where the decline of Matt Millen began. Well, maybe not “began,” per se, but at least where the people of Detroit started to show up to ball games with signs reading “Fire Matt Millen.” Charles Rogers was thought to be one of the surest things out there: 4.4 speed, tall, great jumps. His best year was his rookie year, where he had 243 yards and 3 touchdowns. He’s currently looking for work.
• Johnathon Sullivan, 1st Round (pick 6): In 36 games, he managed 77 tackles and 1.5 sacks. As a Georgia Tech fan, it never bothers me to see former UGA players struggle.
• Jimmy Kennedy, 1st Round (pick 12): Brought in to help the Rams defense at the time, he’s had 90 tackles and 4 sacks in his career.
• Kyle Boller, 1st Round (pick 19): I remember everyone saying he could throw a ball fifty yards from his knees. That’s great and all, but I guess the scouts shoulda had him try and actually hit a target ten yards deep from those same knees.
• Michael Haynes, 1st Round (pick 14): He’s got 5.5 sacks. Total. Great at Penn State, not so great in the League.
• Calvin Pace, 1st Round (pick 18): One of the few Wake Forest players taken in the first round. Maybe the last, if his statistics are any indication of future performance.

I’ll have 2004’s up tomorrow. Feel free to let me know of anyone I’ve missed (reading through all those rounds, my eyes tend to go blurry).

With the draft coming up, I’m going to post a past draft each day, starting today with 2002. It’ll be broken down into three parts: Overhyped, Underhyped, Steal, and Bust.

On we go.

-Overhyped

• Quentin Jammer, 1st Round (pick 5): He’s a solid player, but at the time was thought to be the next great cover man. Last year he picked his career up a little, notching 78 tackles and 4 interceptions for one of the best defenses in the league (Chargers). The bad number: Counting last year, he’s only got 10 picks his entire NFL tenure.
• Ashley Lelie, 1st Round (pick 19): I remember watching him play at Hawaii; he looked like a track star running with slugs. He returned kicks, punts, and caught everything thrown his way, usually for a score. After being drafted by Broncos, he played his last year with the Falcons, where he had rare catches, and even rarer touchdowns. On his career, Lelie’s got just over 3,400 yards receiving with only 13 TD’s, and the longest reception he’s had was for 39 yards.
• Levi Jones, 1st Round (pick 10): He’s had a pretty solid career, but he got punked by Joey Porter. Anyone who’s 6′5″ and weighs over 300 pounds that gets his ass beat. . . well, that makes them overhyped.
• TJ Duckett, 1st Round (pick 18): I hate to put him here. I watched him play in Atlanta and always felt he’d be a good back if ever just given the chance. But the numbers don’t lie: Despite his 33 touchdowns, he’s got only 2,300 yards rushing in his five NFL seasons.

-Underhyped

• Lito Sheppard, 1st Round (pick 26): He was drafted because of an aging secondary at the time in Philadelphia. Since he won the starting job, he hasn’t disappointed. He’s got 15 interceptions in his career, six of which came last year. Three other cornerbacks were drafted before him that year (Mike Rumph, Phillip Buchannon and Quentin Jammer), making him an even nicer pick.
• Ed Reed, 1st Round (pick 24): My guess is that 24 teams wouldn’t overlook this guy if this draft was done over again. He’s got 27 career picks, multiple defensive touchdowns, and is fun to watch every time he’s on the field. Put that with his four Pro Bowls and you can probably argue he’s the best safety in the league.
• Dwight Freeney, 1st Round (pick 11): He was a top 15 pick, but people didn’t see this coming. He’s got 57 career sacks, and is the only person Tom Brady fears more than her.
• Albert Haynesworth, 1st Round (pick 15): He’s lived up to his expectations, pretty much, but Wendall Bryant and Ryan Sims were both taken before him, so I figure it merits the position. He’s a force in the middle and a very good defensive tackle. When he’s not stepping on faces, that is.

-Steals

• LeCharles Bentley, 2nd Round (pick 44): He’s been a Pro Bowler at both guard and center. Only 26 years-old, his best years might be ahead of him; except that now he’s playing with the Browns, where most people’s careers tend to head South.
• Clinton Portis, 2nd Round (pick 51): This one’s kind of obvious. He’s been to Pro Bowls and is awesome to play with on Madden. He’s got nearly 6,500 yards rushing with 52 touchdowns. He was injured last year, but when healthy Portis is a guaranteed 1,300 yard-type-o’-back.
• Antwaan Randle El, 2nd Round (pick 62): He just got a big contract, and though he didn’t put up his normal numbers, some of that may be attributed to Jason Campbell throwing him the ball. Stats aside, he was a very integral part of that Super Bowl team in Pittsburgh.
• Deion Branch, 2nd Round (pick 65): Just read the above. Maybe not so hot in Seattle, but anybody who wins a Super Bowl MVP is a steal with the last pick in the second round.
• Brian Westbrook, 3rd Round (pick 91): Hard to imagine this guy falling that far. He’s one of the most explosive players in the NFL, and maybe the main reason the Eagles were able to have the success they did this year without the help of McNabb.
• Randy McMichael, 4th Round (pick 116): He’s a top 6 or 7 tight end in the NFL. Not a guy that’s really going to break a game open, but also not a guy that was the 116th best player in the draft.
• Chester Taylor, 6th Round (pick 207): His career numbers won’t jump out at you, but he had over 1,200 yards last season for an otherwise anemic offense. If he can get a quarterback and some receivers to go with his ground game, he might be able to do a little more.

-Busts

• David Carr, 1st Round, (pick 1): I guess we’ll start with what started this draft, and that’s the Houston Texans taking David Carr. I was never really impressed with him in college; I felt that playing for Fresno St. kinda helped pad his statistics. His pro stats? 59 touchdowns, 65 interceptions, and 249 sacks. Yes, 249 sacks. I know part of this is that terrible offensive line but, my gosh, at some point you’ve gotta just throw the ball away. I would love to talk about all the great quarterbacks taken after him, but such talk would only lead to. . .
• Joey Harrington, 1st Round (pick 3): I’ve always found myself rooting for Joey because, frankly, I said when he was drafted that he’d be better than David Carr. Past that, I’ve always felt Joey’s been hindered by an idiot running the front office in Detroit. He’s thrown 72 touchdowns and 77 interceptions for a team that generally lacked any offensive line, running backs, receivers (well, good ones), and talent in general. He’s with the Falcons now, so I have to hope he can resemble something of a quarterback that was taken as high as he was, and not the guy that was replaced by Cleo Lemon.
• Mike Williams, 1st Round (pick 4): He was supposed to be a safe pick, and turned out anything but. He’s with the Jags now, but has never really gotten his career going. Until doing this research, I had forgotten Mike Williams was even in the league (this isn’t Mike Williams from USC — we’ll get to him in a couple of days — but rather the gigantic offensive lineman from Texas)
• Ryan Sims, 1st Round (pick 6): Since he entered the league: 75 tackles, 5 sacks. The big debate that year was Ryan Sims or Wendell Bryant at DT; the scouts were right: They both proved to be pretty equally talented.
• Wendell Bryant, 1st Round (pick 11): Nevermind. After looking at the stats, Sims was WAY better than Bryant. 40 tackles, 1.5 sacks. In his career. Yeah. Career.
• William Green, 1st Round (pick 16): What would a draft be without Cleveland wasting its first round pick?
• Phillip Buchanon, 1st Round (pick 17): What would a draft be without Oakland wasting its first round pick?

Look out for tomorrow’s post. I’ll have 2003’s draft up fairly early.